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Västra Frölunda vs IF Elfsborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Västra Frölunda
Västra Frölunda
Preview
16:30
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
8/18/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Final
40%
IF Elfsborg
model favours
37%22%40%

IF Elfsborg score first in only 3% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Västra Frölunda37%
×Draw22%
IF Elfsborg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Västra Frölunda
1.73
IF Elfsborg
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Västra Frölunda
2.75
IF Elfsborg
2.36

allows per match

Västra Frölunda
1.25
IF Elfsborg
0.71

finishing

Västra Frölunda+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Västra Frölunda ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Västra Frölunda or draw
60%
Västra Frölunda or IF Elfsborg
78%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
63%

Winning margin

Västra Frölunda wins by 2+
19%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Västra Frölunda 1+ goals
82%
Västra Frölunda 2+ goals
52%
Västra Frölunda 3+ goals
25%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
83%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
54%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Västra Frölunda (draw refunded)
48%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Västra Frölunda at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Västra Frölunda attack 2.75 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Västra Frölunda defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Västra Frölunda scores more
37%
level
22%
IF Elfsborg scores more
40%

IF Elfsborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Västra Frölunda score first in only 25% of matches
  • IF Elfsborg win just 17% of their away games
  • 67% of Västra Frölunda’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 47% of IF Elfsborg’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Västra Frölunda and IF Elfsborg have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Frölunda
WDDWL
Elfsborg
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Västra Frölunda vs IF Elfsborg — Match Preview

Västra Frölunda face IF Elfsborg on August 18, 2026 in this Svenska Cupen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.