Valledupar 1–1 Orsomarso: Result & Stats

Valledupar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Orsomarso

8/18/2018

Primera B · Round 20Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Valledupar46%

×Draw28%

Orsomarso25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValleduparExpected goals in this matchOrsomarso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.89

Valledupar

1.31

Orsomarso

0.89

Valledupar creates 47% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 131 away

1.25

creates per match

0.74

1.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Valledupar

1.25

Orsomarso

0.74

allows per match

Valledupar

1.03

Orsomarso

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Orsomarso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw

75%

Valledupar or Orsomarso

72%

Draw or Orsomarso

54%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+

22%

Orsomarso wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals

73%

Valledupar 2+ goals

38%

Valledupar 3+ goals

14%

Orsomarso 1+ goals

59%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

22%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)

65%

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 89 matches

Orsomarso away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 1.25 + Orsomarso defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Orsomarso attack 0.74 + Valledupar defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valledupar scores more

46%

level

28%

Orsomarso scores more

25%

Valledupar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff