Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Botafogo: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo

Nathan Fernandes 78'

Arthur Cabral 48'

7/12/2025

Serie A · Round 13Arena BRB Mané Garrincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Vasco DA Gama49%

×Draw25%

Botafogo25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.06

Vasco DA Gama

1.58

Botafogo

1.06

Vasco DA Gama creates 49% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.57

creates per match

0.96

1.17

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.57

Botafogo

0.96

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.17

Botafogo

1.59

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

Vasco DA Gama-0.28scores less

Botafogo+0.47scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Botafogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

75%

Vasco DA Gama or Botafogo

75%

Draw or Botafogo

51%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

26%

Botafogo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

79%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

47%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

21%

Botafogo 1+ goals

65%

Botafogo 2+ goals

29%

Botafogo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

66%

Botafogo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Botafogo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.57 + Botafogo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Botafogo attack 0.96 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

49%

level

25%

Botafogo scores more

25%

Vasco DA Gama at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Montoro

Botafogo · M

8.0

Match Events

4'

Alexander Barboza

33'

VitinhoPenalty cancelled

42'

Lucas Freitas

46'

Álvaro Montoro

48'

Arthur Cabral

52'

Mateus Carvalho← Lucas Freitas

61'

Alex Teixeira← Coutinho

63'

J. Correa← J. Savarino

75'

Nathan Fernandes← Arthur Cabral

78'

Nathan Fernandes↳ Marlon Freitas

82'

S. Rodriguez← Artur

82'

Allan← A. Montoro

83'

David← Rayan

83'

B. Garre← N. Moreira

83'

GB← P. Vegetti

86'

Benjamín Garré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoBotafogo

Overview

66%Possession34%

11Total Shots21

0.53Expected Goals (xG)3.17

5Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots21

5On Target6

3Off Target10

3Blocked5

4Inside Box13

7Outside Box8

Passing

66%Possession34%

665Total Passes336

606Accurate Passes288

91%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1