Vasalund 1–4 Stockholm Internazionale

Vasalund

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Stockholm Internazionale

11/12/2023

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 30Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Vasalund43%

×Draw24%

Stockholm Internazionale33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VasalundExpected goals in this matchStockholm Internazionale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.40

Vasalund

1.63

Stockholm Internazionale

1.40

Vasalund creates 16% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 66 away

2.13

creates per match

1.65

1.16

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Vasalund

2.13

Stockholm Internazionale

1.65

allows per match

Vasalund

1.16

Stockholm Internazionale

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasalund+0.00on par

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasalund ↓

Stockholm Internazionale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vasalund or draw

67%

Vasalund or Stockholm Internazionale

76%

Draw or Stockholm Internazionale

57%

Winning margin

Vasalund wins by 2+

22%

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vasalund 1+ goals

80%

Vasalund 2+ goals

48%

Vasalund 3+ goals

22%

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

75%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

41%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vasalund (draw refunded)

57%

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasalund at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

Stockholm Internazionale away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasalund attack 2.13 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stockholm Internazionale attack 1.65 + Vasalund defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vasalund scores more

43%

level

24%

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

33%

Vasalund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vasalund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff