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Varzim vs Trofense — Liga 3 2021

Varzim
Varzim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Trofense
Trofense
12/16/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 14Estádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Varzim45%
×Draw28%
Trofense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
1.33
Trofense
0.95

Varzim creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

Varzim
1.52
Trofense
0.98

allows per match

Varzim
0.92
Trofense
1.14

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Trofense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Trofense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
73%
Varzim or Trofense
72%
Draw or Trofense
55%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
21%
Trofense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
74%
Varzim 2+ goals
38%
Varzim 3+ goals
15%
Trofense 1+ goals
61%
Trofense 2+ goals
25%
Trofense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
63%
Trofense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Trofense away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.52 + Trofense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Trofense attack 0.98 + Varzim defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Varzim scores more
45%
level
28%
Trofense scores more
27%

Varzim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Varzim 1–2 Trofense

Trofense beat Varzim 2-1 in Liga 3 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Varzim Sport Club in Póvoa de Varzim.