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Vargas Torres vs Manta FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Manta FC
Manta FC
3/22/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio 7 de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vargas Torres45%
×Draw30%
Manta FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.21
Manta FC
0.82

Vargas Torres creates 48% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 104 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.15
Manta FC
0.91

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.73
Manta FC
1.27

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
75%
Vargas Torres or Manta FC
70%
Draw or Manta FC
55%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
20%
Manta FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
70%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
34%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
12%
Manta FC 1+ goals
56%
Manta FC 2+ goals
20%
Manta FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
64%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + Manta FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Manta FC attack 0.91 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
45%
level
30%
Manta FC scores more
25%

Vargas Torres at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Vargas Torres 1–0 Manta FC

Vargas Torres beat Manta FC 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio 7 de Octubre in Quevedo.