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Varea vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
10/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Varea62%
×Draw21%
Peña Balsamaiso17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
2.03
Peña Balsamaiso
0.95

Varea creates 114% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 66 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Varea or draw
83%
Varea or Peña Balsamaiso
79%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
38%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
38%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
87%
Varea 2+ goals
60%
Varea 3+ goals
33%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
61%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
25%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
79%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.03

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Varea scores more
62%
level
21%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
17%

Varea at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Varea 2–0 Peña Balsamaiso

Varea beat Peña Balsamaiso 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.