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Varea vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Berceo
Berceo
1/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Varea55%
×Draw23%
Berceo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
1.87
Berceo
1.09

Varea creates 72% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Varea or draw
78%
Varea or Berceo
77%
Draw or Berceo
45%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
32%
Berceo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
85%
Varea 2+ goals
56%
Varea 3+ goals
29%
Berceo 1+ goals
66%
Berceo 2+ goals
30%
Berceo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
72%
Berceo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.87

Berceo attack 1.25 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Varea scores more
55%
level
23%
Berceo scores more
22%

Varea at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Varea 5 – 0 Berceo

Varea beat Berceo 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.