Vardar Skopje 3–0 Struga: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Struga

F. Najdoski 80'

Juninho 66', 58'

9/14/2019

First League · Round 5Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vardar Skopje43%

×Draw27%

Struga31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchStruga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Vardar Skopje

1.39

Struga

1.13

Vardar Skopje creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 106 away

1.71

creates per match

1.19

1.06

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.71

Struga

1.19

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.06

Struga

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Struga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Struga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

69%

Vardar Skopje or Struga

73%

Draw or Struga

57%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

20%

Struga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

75%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

40%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

16%

Struga 1+ goals

68%

Struga 2+ goals

31%

Struga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

58%

Struga (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Struga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + Struga defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Struga attack 1.19 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

43%

level

27%

Struga scores more

31%

Vardar Skopje at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Popzlatanov← A. Adem

46'

M. Cvetanoski← B. Kolevski

58'

Juninho

63'

E. Ramadani← B. Sheji

66'

Juninho

75'

A. Jahja← D. Cvetanoski

80'

F. Najdoski

81'

L. Ignatov← V. Brdarovski

87'

A. Dalcheski← B. Mustafov

Vardar

Struga

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: A. Vasoski

46'▲J. Popzlatanov←▼A. Adem

46'▲M. Cvetanoski←▼B. Kolevski

81'▲L. Ignatov←▼V. Brdarovski

Vardar Skopje substitutes

PopzlatanovCvetanoskiIgnatov

Manager: J. Beqiri

63'▲E. Ramadani←▼B. Sheji

75'▲A. Jahja←▼D. Cvetanoski

87'▲A. Dalcheski←▼B. Mustafov

Struga substitutes

RamadaniJahjaDalcheski

First League: Vardar Skopje 3–0 Struga

Vardar Skopje beat Struga 3-0 in First League on September 14, 2019.

Goals: Juninho (58', 66'), F. Najdoski (80').

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.

Vardar Skopje vs Struga — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Vardar Skopje 3–0 Struga