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Vardar Skopje vs Skopje — First League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
Preview
16:00
Skopje
Skopje
12/12/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 18
56%
Vardar Skopje
model favours
56%24%20%

Vardar Skopje score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vardar Skopje56%
×Draw24%
Skopje20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.66
Skopje
0.88

Vardar Skopje creates 89% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
1.56
Skopje
0.62

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
1.13
Skopje
1.76

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
80%
Vardar Skopje or Skopje
76%
Draw or Skopje
44%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
30%
Skopje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
81%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
49%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
23%
Skopje 1+ goals
59%
Skopje 2+ goals
22%
Skopje 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
74%
Skopje (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Skopje away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Skopje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.66

Skopje attack 0.62 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
56%
level
24%
Skopje scores more
20%

Vardar Skopje at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Skopje win just 8% against the top half (vs 39% against the bottom)
  • Vardar Skopje sit 1, Skopje 12 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Skopje
WLWDW
Skopje
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vardar Skopje host Skopje

December 12, 2026: Vardar Skopje take on Skopje in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.