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Vardar Skopje vs Sileks — First League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
CANC
00:00
Sileks
Sileks
3/18/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vardar Skopje44%
×Draw26%
Sileks30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.46
Sileks
1.15

Vardar Skopje creates 27% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 91 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
1.71
Sileks
1.24

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
1.06
Sileks
1.20

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Sileks+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Sileks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
70%
Vardar Skopje or Sileks
74%
Draw or Sileks
56%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
22%
Sileks wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
77%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
43%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
18%
Sileks 1+ goals
68%
Sileks 2+ goals
32%
Sileks 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
60%
Sileks (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

Sileks away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + Sileks defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sileks attack 1.24 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
44%
level
26%
Sileks scores more
30%

Vardar Skopje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vardar Skopje host Sileks

March 18, 2020: Vardar Skopje take on Sileks in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vardar Skopje host Sileks at Toše Proeski Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.