Vardar Skopje 2–0 FK Rabotnicki: Result & Stats

Vardar Skopje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Rabotnicki

D. Avramovski 90+1'

B. Kolevski 56'

8/24/2019

First League · Round 3Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Vardar Skopje49%

×Draw26%

FK Rabotnicki25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar SkopjeExpected goals in this matchFK Rabotnicki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.01

Vardar Skopje

1.52

FK Rabotnicki

1.01

Vardar Skopje creates 50% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 111 away

1.71

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Vardar Skopje

1.71

FK Rabotnicki

0.96

allows per match

Vardar Skopje

1.06

FK Rabotnicki

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

FK Rabotnicki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw

75%

Vardar Skopje or FK Rabotnicki

74%

Draw or FK Rabotnicki

51%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

25%

FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

78%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

45%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

20%

FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals

64%

FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals

27%

FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

66%

FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

FK Rabotnicki away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.71 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

FK Rabotnicki attack 0.96 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more

49%

level

26%

FK Rabotnicki scores more

25%

Vardar Skopje at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

D. Toshevski← Yaggo Gomes

56'

B. Kolevski

68'

M. Cvetanoski← B. Kolevski

74'

B. Papović← S. Krstevski

87'

B. Panovski← K. Ackovski

90+2'

D. Ibishi← D. Avramovski

90+1'

D. Avramovski

Vardar

FK

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Avramovsk

Adem

⚽

▼

Kolevski

Manager: A. Vasoski

68'▲M. Cvetanoski←▼B. Kolevski

90+2'▲D. Ibishi←▼D. Avramovski

Vardar Skopje substitutes

CvetanoskiIbishi

Manager: A. Vlaho

56'▲D. Toshevski←▼Yaggo Gomes

74'▲B. Papović←▼S. Krstevski

87'▲B. Panovski←▼K. Ackovski

FK Rabotnicki substitutes

ToshevskiPapovićPanovski

First League: Vardar Skopje 2–0 FK Rabotnicki

Vardar Skopje beat FK Rabotnicki 2-0 in First League on August 24, 2019.

Goals: B. Kolevski (56'), D. Avramovski (90+1').

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.

Vardar Skopje vs FK Rabotnicki — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Vardar Skopje 2–0 FK Rabotnicki