Vard 3–4 Notodden: Result & Stats

Vard

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Notodden

R. Skjelde 71'

J. Kvarven 50'

S. Jensen 28'

A. Tjomsland 90+1'

S. Nordbø 65'

A. Berntsen 63'

K. Eggen 21' (pen)

6/24/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vard46%

×Draw23%

Notodden31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VardExpected goals in this matchNotodden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.45

Vard

1.81

Notodden

1.45

Vard creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 58 away

1.76

creates per match

1.28

1.61

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Vard

1.76

Notodden

1.28

allows per match

Vard

1.61

Notodden

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vard+0.00on par

Notodden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vard ↓

Notodden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vard or draw

69%

Vard or Notodden

77%

Draw or Notodden

54%

Winning margin

Vard wins by 2+

25%

Notodden wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vard 1+ goals

84%

Vard 2+ goals

54%

Vard 3+ goals

27%

Notodden 1+ goals

77%

Notodden 2+ goals

42%

Notodden 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vard (draw refunded)

60%

Notodden (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vard at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Notodden away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vard attack 1.76 + Notodden defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Notodden attack 1.28 + Vard defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vard scores more

46%

level

23%

Notodden scores more

31%

Vard at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

K. EggenPenalty

28'

49'

50'

58'

63'

64'

65'

66'

66'

D. Osdautaj← Simón Colina

66'

E. Ndayisenga← M. Kuittinen

71'

R. Skjelde

88'

T. Telle← S. Nordbø

90+1'

A. Tjomsland

Vard

Notodden

1

Raniowski

2

Rønning-O

3

▼

Husebø

4

Hammerli

14

⚽

Berntsen

7

⚽

Eggen

22

Jørgensen

21

⚽

Tjomsland

17

⚽

▼

6

5

1

18

4

⚽

Skjelde

3

Helgesen

7

⚽

Jensen

14

▼

Kuittinen

11

▼

Colina

10

Kling

6

Harvey

8

⚽

▼

Kvarven

9

Endresen

Manager: K. Fosen

66'▲E. Shala←▼J. Kvarven

66'▲D. Osdautaj←▼Simón Colina

66'▲E. Ndayisenga←▼M. Kuittinen

Vard substitutes

12Shala15Osdautaj16Ndayisenga2Nygaard13Engenes20Thorsen5Lorentz23Kisaruko17Crovo

Manager: S. Lund

64'▲S. Hansen←▼W. Husebø

88'▲T. Telle←▼S. Nordbø

Notodden substitutes

10Hansen24Telle8Jonassen12Finnestrand26Tobiassen

Match Recap: Vard vs Notodden

Notodden beat Vard 4-3 in 2. Division - Group 1 on June 24, 2023.

Goals: K. Eggen (21' pen), S. Jensen (28'), J. Kvarven (50'), A. Berntsen (63'), S. Nordbø (65'), R. Skjelde (71'), A. Tjomsland (90+1').

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.

Vard vs Notodden — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vard vs Notodden