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Varbergs BoIS FC vs Osters IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Osters IF
Osters IF
2/28/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Håstens IP konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Varbergs BoIS FC34%
×Draw26%
Osters IF40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.29
Osters IF
1.43

Osters IF creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.00
Osters IF
1.57

allows per match

Varbergs BoIS FC
1.29
Osters IF
1.57

finishing

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varbergs BoIS FC ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Varbergs BoIS FC or draw
60%
Varbergs BoIS FC or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
66%

Winning margin

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
15%
Osters IF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
72%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
37%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
14%
Osters IF 1+ goals
76%
Osters IF 2+ goals
42%
Osters IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
46%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varbergs BoIS FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.00 + Osters IF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Osters IF attack 1.57 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
34%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
40%

Osters IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Varbergs BoIS FC 1–0 Osters IF

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Osters IF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2022.

The match was played at Håstens IP konstgräs in Varberg.