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Vaprus vs Kuressaare — Meistriliiga 2026

Vaprus
Vaprus
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
3/17/2024MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 3Pärnu Rehepapi kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Vaprus40%
×Draw24%
Kuressaare36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vaprus
1.59
Kuressaare
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 132 away

creates per match

Vaprus
1.16
Kuressaare
1.00

allows per match

Vaprus
2.01
Kuressaare
2.02

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par
Kuressaare+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Kuressaare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw
64%
Vaprus or Kuressaare
76%
Draw or Kuressaare
60%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+
20%
Kuressaare wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals
80%
Vaprus 2+ goals
47%
Vaprus 3+ goals
21%
Kuressaare 1+ goals
78%
Kuressaare 2+ goals
44%
Kuressaare 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)
53%
Kuressaare (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 97 matches

Kuressaare away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 1.16 + Kuressaare defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kuressaare attack 1.00 + Vaprus defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vaprus scores more
40%
level
24%
Kuressaare scores more
36%

Vaprus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vaprus vs Kuressaare

Vaprus beat Kuressaare 3-2 in Meistriliiga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Pärnu Rehepapi kunstmuruväljak in Pärnu.