Vaprus 3–1 Kuressaare: Result & Stats

Vaprus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kuressaare

E. Veensalu 76'

S. Kapper 52'

M. Käos 30'

O. Lipp 75'

9/17/2023

Meistriliiga · Round 27Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Vaprus40%

×Draw24%

Kuressaare37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaprusExpected goals in this matchKuressaare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.51

Vaprus

1.58

Kuressaare

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 126 away

1.16

creates per match

1.01

2.01

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vaprus

1.16

Kuressaare

1.01

allows per match

Vaprus

2.01

Kuressaare

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par

Kuressaare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

Kuressaare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw

63%

Vaprus or Kuressaare

76%

Draw or Kuressaare

60%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+

20%

Kuressaare wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals

79%

Vaprus 2+ goals

47%

Vaprus 3+ goals

21%

Kuressaare 1+ goals

78%

Kuressaare 2+ goals

44%

Kuressaare 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)

52%

Kuressaare (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 97 matches

Kuressaare away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.00 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 1.16 + Kuressaare defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kuressaare attack 1.01 + Vaprus defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vaprus scores more

40%

level

24%

Kuressaare scores more

37%

Vaprus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vaprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

30'

52'

59'

59'

71'

72'

Mathias Villota← H. Välja

75'

O. Lipp

76'

E. Veensalu

78'

J. Sild← M. Käos

82'

A. Iljin← O. Rass

82'

A. Smirnov← A. Jermatšenko

84'

A. Kivi← M. Palts

86'

R. Tiismaa← E. Veensalu

Vaprus

Kuressaare

1

Karofeld

5

Veering

3

▼

Allast

2

▼

Palts

4

Liit

6

▼

Rass

35

▼

26

7

27

17

▼

13

15

4

7

⚽

▼

Käos

5

Kõrre

17

⚽

Kapper

20

▼

Välja

10

⚽

▼

11

9

8

Manager: I. Prins

72'▲Mathias Villota←▼H. Välja

78'▲J. Sild←▼M. Käos

86'▲R. Tiismaa←▼E. Veensalu

Vaprus substitutes

24Villota90Sild77Tiismaa1Vainu21Madissoo27Ristikivi39Limberg

Manager: R. Kozhukhovskyi

59'▲M. Miil←▼M. Allast

59'▲O. Lipp←▼S. Reinkort

82'▲A. Iljin←▼O. Rass

82'▲A. Smirnov←▼A. Jermatšenko

84'▲A. Kivi←▼M. Palts

Kuressaare substitutes

22Miil46Lipp11Iljin18Smirnov88Kivi66Meesit48Suvinõmm70Vahermägi24Kobin