Vaprus 0–2 FC Levadia Tallinn: Result & Stats

Vaprus

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Levadia Tallinn

M. Roosnupp 90+5'

Felipe Felício 47'

5/19/2024

Meistriliiga · Round 11Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Vaprus18%

×Draw20%

FC Levadia Tallinn62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VaprusExpected goals in this matchFC Levadia Tallinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.10

Vaprus

1.03

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.10

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 104% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 125 away

1.16

creates per match

2.19

2.01

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Vaprus

1.16

FC Levadia Tallinn

2.19

allows per match

Vaprus

2.01

FC Levadia Tallinn

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vaprus+0.00on par

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vaprus ↓

FC Levadia Tallinn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vaprus or draw

38%

Vaprus or FC Levadia Tallinn

80%

Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn

82%

Winning margin

Vaprus wins by 2+

6%

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Vaprus 1+ goals

64%

Vaprus 2+ goals

28%

Vaprus 3+ goals

9%

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals

88%

FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals

62%

FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Vaprus (draw refunded)

22%

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vaprus at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 97 matches

FC Levadia Tallinn away — creates 2.19, concedes 0.91 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vaprus attack 1.16 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.19 + Vaprus defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vaprus scores more

18%

level

20%

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more

62%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

F. Liivak

47'

Felipe Felício

70'

M. Roosnupp← F. Liivak

72'

U. Kõrre← R. Madissoo

72'

M. Paalberg← V. Vallik

72'

M. Limberg← E. Veensalu

77'

Alexandre← R. Musaba

82'

R. Kirss← Felipe Felício

82'

N. Vassiljev← I. Yakovlev

88'

90'

90+2'

90+5'

Vaprus

FC

99

2

26

3

11

7

15

19

▼

Musaba

23

▼

Liivak

10

▼

Yakovlev

9

⚽

▼

13

15

4

21

▼

Madissoo

17

Kapper

20

▼

Välja

10

▼

90

11

9

19

▼

Vallik

Manager: I. Prins

72'▲U. Kõrre←▼R. Madissoo

72'▲M. Paalberg←▼V. Vallik

72'▲M. Limberg←▼E. Veensalu

88'▲R. Limberg←▼H. Välja

Vaprus substitutes

5Kõrre18Paalberg42Limberg39Limberg1Vainu7Käos22Miiter27Ristikivi77Tiismaa

Manager: Curro Torres

70'▲M. Roosnupp←▼F. Liivak

77'▲Alexandre←▼R. Musaba

82'▲R. Kirss←▼Felipe Felício

82'▲N. Vassiljev←▼I. Yakovlev

FC Levadia Tallinn substitutes

5Roosnupp18Alexandre17Kirss29Vassiljev1Ani24Zakarlyuka25Kallaste41Skvortsov59Gussev