Vanløse 0–1 Brønshøj: Result & Stats

Vanløse

FT

0 – 1

Brønshøj

8/21/2019

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Vanløse IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vanløse49%

×Draw29%

Brønshøj22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VanløseExpected goals in this matchBrønshøj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.76

Vanløse

1.30

Brønshøj

0.76

Vanløse creates 71% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.88

0.63

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Vanløse

1.13

Brønshøj

0.88

allows per match

Vanløse

0.63

Brønshøj

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vanløse+0.00on par

Brønshøj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vanløse ↓

Brønshøj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vanløse or draw

78%

Vanløse or Brønshøj

71%

Draw or Brønshøj

51%

Winning margin

Vanløse wins by 2+

23%

Brønshøj wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vanløse 1+ goals

73%

Vanløse 2+ goals

37%

Vanløse 3+ goals

14%

Brønshøj 1+ goals

53%

Brønshøj 2+ goals

18%

Brønshøj 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vanløse (draw refunded)

69%

Brønshøj (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vanløse at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Brønshøj away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vanløse attack 1.13 + Brønshøj defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Brønshøj attack 0.88 + Vanløse defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vanløse scores more

49%

level

29%

Brønshøj scores more

22%

Vanløse at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vanløse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff