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Vänersborgs FK vs Yxhult — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Vänersborgs FK
Vänersborgs FK
FT
2 – 0
Yxhult
Yxhult
6/5/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 12Vänersvallen Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Vänersborgs FK42%
×Draw22%
Yxhult36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vänersborgs FK
1.90
Yxhult
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 40 away

creates per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.72
Yxhult
1.60

allows per match

Vänersborgs FK
1.91
Yxhult
2.08

finishing

Vänersborgs FK+0.00on par
Yxhult+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vänersborgs FK ↓

Yxhult →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vänersborgs FK or draw
64%
Vänersborgs FK or Yxhult
78%
Draw or Yxhult
58%

Winning margin

Vänersborgs FK wins by 2+
23%
Yxhult wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vänersborgs FK 1+ goals
85%
Vänersborgs FK 2+ goals
56%
Vänersborgs FK 3+ goals
29%
Yxhult 1+ goals
83%
Yxhult 2+ goals
52%
Yxhult 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vänersborgs FK (draw refunded)
54%
Yxhult (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vänersborgs FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.91 · 94 matches

Yxhult away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vänersborgs FK attack 1.72 + Yxhult defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.90

Yxhult attack 1.60 + Vänersborgs FK defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vänersborgs FK scores more
42%
level
22%
Yxhult scores more
36%

Vänersborgs FK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vänersborgs FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vänersborgs FK vs Yxhult

Vänersborgs FK beat Yxhult 2-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Vänersvallen Nord in Vänersborg.