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Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC
11/6/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · MLS Cup - Round 1BC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps48%
×Draw23%
Los Angeles FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.80
Los Angeles FC
1.35

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
2.29
Los Angeles FC
1.59

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.12
Los Angeles FC
1.31

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps-0.10scores less
Los Angeles FC+0.20scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

Los Angeles FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw
71%
Vancouver Whitecaps or Los Angeles FC
77%
Draw or Los Angeles FC
52%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+
26%
Los Angeles FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals
83%
Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals
54%
Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals
27%
Los Angeles FC 1+ goals
74%
Los Angeles FC 2+ goals
39%
Los Angeles FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)
62%
Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 2.29 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.80

Los Angeles FC attack 1.59 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more
48%
level
23%
Los Angeles FC scores more
29%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles FC beat Vancouver Whitecaps 1-0 in Major League Soccer on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia.