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Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montreal — Canadian Championship 2018

Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps
Preview
20:00
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
9/2/2026Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · Semi-finalsBC Place
Big match
55%
Vancouver Whitecaps
model favours
55%23%22%

Even after scoring first, CF Montreal win only 20%

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps55%
×Draw23%
CF Montreal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps
1.83
CF Montreal
1.06

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 73% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
2.17
CF Montreal
1.20

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps
0.92
CF Montreal
1.50

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps+0.00on par
CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw
78%
Vancouver Whitecaps or CF Montreal
77%
Draw or CF Montreal
45%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+
31%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals
84%
Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals
54%
Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals
28%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
65%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
29%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)
72%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 2.17 + CF Montreal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

CF Montreal attack 1.20 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more
55%
level
23%
CF Montreal scores more
22%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vancouver Whitecaps score first in only 18% of matches
  • CF Montreal score first in only 30% of matches
  • 70% of CF Montreal’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (61% and 70% over 2.5)
  • 33% of Vancouver Whitecaps’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 31% of CF Montreal’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Whitecaps
DWWLW
Montreal
DWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vancouver Whitecaps host CF Montreal

September 2, 2026: Vancouver Whitecaps take on CF Montreal in Canadian Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vancouver Whitecaps host CF Montreal at BC Place.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.