Vancouver Whitecaps 2–4 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

Vancouver Whitecaps

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

CF Montreal

R. Camacho 66' (OG)

T. Bair 7'

R. Quioto 60'

S. Piette 51'

S. Taïder 45+1' (pen)

O. Okwonkwo 15'

9/14/2020

Major League Soccer · Round 11BC Place Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps55%

×Draw22%

CF Montreal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver WhitecapsExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.25

Vancouver Whitecaps

2.00

CF Montreal

1.25

Vancouver Whitecaps creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.29

creates per match

1.39

1.12

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

2.29

CF Montreal

1.39

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps

1.12

CF Montreal

1.71

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps-0.10scores less

CF Montreal+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps or draw

76%

Vancouver Whitecaps or CF Montreal

78%

Draw or CF Montreal

45%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps wins by 2+

32%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps 1+ goals

86%

Vancouver Whitecaps 2+ goals

59%

Vancouver Whitecaps 3+ goals

32%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

71%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

36%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps (draw refunded)

70%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.71 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps attack 2.29 + CF Montreal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Vancouver Whitecaps defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps scores more

55%

level

22%

CF Montreal scores more

24%

Vancouver Whitecaps at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Taïder

CF Montreal · M

8.0

Match Events

7'

T. Bair↳ M. Milinković

15'

O. Okwonkwo↳ S. Taïder

24'

Lucas Cavallini

45+1'

S. TaïderPenalty

51'

S. Piette↳ S. Taïder

55'

C. Dájome← L. Owusu

55'

F. Montero← T. Bair

55'

C. Gutiérrez← Ali Adnan

55'

J. Nerwinski← E. Godoy

57'

57'

59'

60'

66'

R. CamachoOwn goal

69'

Cristián Dájome

72'

Emanuel Maciel

73'

Y. Reyna← M. Milinković

74'

Michael Baldisimo

86'

L. Lappalainen← R. Quioto

90'

S. Shome← O. Okwonkwo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VancouverCF

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots18

6Corners4

18Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots18

6On Target7

6Off Target5

1Blocked6

9Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

388Total Passes428

325Accurate Passes373

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls16

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1