Vancouver Whitecaps II 0–1 The Town: Result & Stats

Vancouver Whitecaps II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

The Town

9/16/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 37Swangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II38%

×Draw22%

The Town39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver Whitecaps IIExpected goals in this matchThe Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.75

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.73

The Town

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 54 away

2.00

creates per match

1.80

1.71

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.00

The Town

1.80

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.71

The Town

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

The Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw

61%

Vancouver Whitecaps II or The Town

78%

Draw or The Town

62%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+

20%

The Town wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals

82%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals

52%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals

25%

The Town 1+ goals

83%

The Town 2+ goals

52%

The Town 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)

49%

The Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

The Town attack 1.80 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more

38%

level

22%

The Town scores more

39%

The Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff