Vancouver Whitecaps II 2–2 Tacoma Defiance

Vancouver Whitecaps II

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tacoma Defiance

J. Herdman 120+8' (pen), 64'

V. Fry 120+6' (pen)

F. Linder 6'

A. Robin 120+9' (pen)

V. Sabella 120+7' (pen), 90+8'

T. Sousa 120+5' (pen)

M. Vargas 120+1' (pen), 26'

6/12/2022

MLS Next Pro · Round 13Swangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II45%

×Draw22%

Tacoma Defiance33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vancouver Whitecaps IIExpected goals in this matchTacoma Defiance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.68

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.98

Tacoma Defiance

1.68

Vancouver Whitecaps II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

2.00

creates per match

1.65

1.71

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II

2.00

Tacoma Defiance

1.65

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II

1.71

Tacoma Defiance

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

Tacoma Defiance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw

67%

Vancouver Whitecaps II or Tacoma Defiance

78%

Draw or Tacoma Defiance

55%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+

25%

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals

86%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals

59%

Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals

31%

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

81%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

50%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)

58%

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.98

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more

45%

level

22%

Tacoma Defiance scores more

33%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

21'

26'

28'

45+2'

45+2'

55'

60'

V. Sabella← G. Minoungou

61'

J. Herdman← P. Vite

61'

C. Lee← F. Rakic

64'

J. Herdman↳ S. Becher

77'

J. Hanson← E. Brienza

79'

79'

90+1'

90+4'

90+5'

90+8'

120+1'

M. VargasPenalty

120+2'

S. BecherMissed penalty

120+3'

C. BakerMissed penalty

120+4'

R. AntoniukMissed penalty

120+5'

T. SousaPenalty

120+6'

V. FryPenalty

120+7'

V. SabellaPenalty

120+8'

J. HerdmanPenalty

120+9'

A. RobinPenalty

Vancouver

Tacoma

36

Lapsley

90

⚽

Robin

82

Hafferty

32

Uderitz

33

A

Baker

88

▼

Ovalle

77

Kitahara

39

⚽2

Vargas

97

Alvarez

87

Ocampo-Ch

93

▼

60

64

68

53

83

⚽

Linder

57

Bah

52

⚽

Fry

49

▼

Brienza

29

A

Becher

45

▼

Vite

46

▼

Rakic

Manager: N. Dasovic

61'▲J. Herdman←▼P. Vite

61'▲C. Lee←▼F. Rakic

77'▲J. Hanson←▼E. Brienza

Vancouver Whitecaps II substitutes

92Herdman44Lee76Hanson48Collomb47Fernandez-Salvador50Anchor95Ndakala

Manager: W. Webber

60'▲V. Sabella←▼G. Minoungou

79'▲T. Sousa←▼A. Ovalle

Tacoma Defiance substitutes

80Sabella31Sousa91Gombéféi42Hall67Nelson44Jeremiah72Kinzner