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Vancouver Whitecaps II vs North Texas — MLS Next Pro 2022

Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
North Texas
North Texas
8/26/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 32BC Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II43%
×Draw23%
North Texas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.77
North Texas
1.54

Vancouver Whitecaps II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.00
North Texas
1.36

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.71
North Texas
1.54

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par
North Texas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

North Texas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw
66%
Vancouver Whitecaps II or North Texas
77%
Draw or North Texas
57%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
23%
North Texas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
83%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
53%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
26%
North Texas 1+ goals
79%
North Texas 2+ goals
45%
North Texas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
56%
North Texas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

North Texas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + North Texas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

North Texas attack 1.36 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
43%
level
23%
North Texas scores more
34%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Vancouver Whitecaps II 0–1 North Texas

North Texas beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 1-0 in MLS Next Pro on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at BC Place in Vancouver, British Columbia.