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Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Los Angeles FC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Angeles FC II
Los Angeles FC II
6/10/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 18Swangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II52%
×Draw21%
Los Angeles FC II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.18
Los Angeles FC II
1.56

Vancouver Whitecaps II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.00
Los Angeles FC II
1.42

allows per match

Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.71
Los Angeles FC II
2.36

finishing

Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par
Los Angeles FC II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Whitecaps II ↓

Los Angeles FC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vancouver Whitecaps II or draw
72%
Vancouver Whitecaps II or Los Angeles FC II
79%
Draw or Los Angeles FC II
48%

Winning margin

Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
31%
Los Angeles FC II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
89%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
64%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
37%
Los Angeles FC II 1+ goals
79%
Los Angeles FC II 2+ goals
46%
Los Angeles FC II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
65%
Los Angeles FC II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Whitecaps II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

Los Angeles FC II away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 2.00 + Los Angeles FC II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Los Angeles FC II attack 1.42 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
52%
level
21%
Los Angeles FC II scores more
28%

Vancouver Whitecaps II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vancouver Whitecaps II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vancouver Whitecaps II vs Los Angeles FC II

Vancouver Whitecaps II beat Los Angeles FC II 4-0 in MLS Next Pro on June 10, 2024.

The match was played at Swangard Stadium in Burnaby, British Columbia.