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Vancouver Rise W vs Halifax Tides W — Northern Super League 2026

Vancouver Rise W
Vancouver Rise W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Halifax Tides W
Halifax Tides W
5/6/2025Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League · Round 1Swangard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vancouver Rise W47%
×Draw25%
Halifax Tides W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver Rise W
1.59
Halifax Tides W
1.15

Vancouver Rise W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vancouver Rise W
1.71
Halifax Tides W
0.71

allows per match

Vancouver Rise W
1.59
Halifax Tides W
1.47

finishing

Vancouver Rise W+0.00on par
Halifax Tides W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver Rise W ↓

Halifax Tides W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vancouver Rise W or draw
72%
Vancouver Rise W or Halifax Tides W
75%
Draw or Halifax Tides W
53%

Winning margin

Vancouver Rise W wins by 2+
24%
Halifax Tides W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vancouver Rise W 1+ goals
80%
Vancouver Rise W 2+ goals
47%
Vancouver Rise W 3+ goals
21%
Halifax Tides W 1+ goals
68%
Halifax Tides W 2+ goals
32%
Halifax Tides W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vancouver Rise W (draw refunded)
63%
Halifax Tides W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver Rise W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Halifax Tides W away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver Rise W attack 1.71 + Halifax Tides W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Halifax Tides W attack 0.71 + Vancouver Rise W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vancouver Rise W scores more
47%
level
25%
Halifax Tides W scores more
28%

Vancouver Rise W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vancouver Rise W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vancouver Rise W vs Halifax Tides W

Vancouver Rise W beat Halifax Tides W 1-0 in Northern Super League on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Swangard Stadium in Burnaby, British Columbia.