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Vancouver FC vs York United — Canadian Premier League 2020

Vancouver FC
Vancouver FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
York United
York United
9/7/2024Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Round 10Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Vancouver FC35%
×Draw25%
York United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vancouver FC
1.33
York United
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 82 away

creates per match

Vancouver FC
1.16
York United
1.15

allows per match

Vancouver FC
1.71
York United
1.51

finishing

Vancouver FC+0.00on par
York United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vancouver FC ↓

York United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vancouver FC or draw
60%
Vancouver FC or York United
75%
Draw or York United
65%

Winning margin

Vancouver FC wins by 2+
16%
York United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vancouver FC 1+ goals
74%
Vancouver FC 2+ goals
38%
Vancouver FC 3+ goals
15%
York United 1+ goals
76%
York United 2+ goals
42%
York United 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vancouver FC (draw refunded)
47%
York United (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vancouver FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 49 matches

York United away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vancouver FC attack 1.16 + York United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

York United attack 1.15 + Vancouver FC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vancouver FC scores more
35%
level
25%
York United scores more
40%

York United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vancouver FC 0 – 1 York United

York United beat Vancouver FC 1-0 in Canadian Premier League on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre in Langley, British Columbia.