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Van vs FC Urartu — Premier League 2019

Van
Van
Preview
16:00
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
3/11/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Charentsavan City Stadium
Big match
44%
FC Urartu
model favours
30%26%44%

Van win just 18% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Van30%
×Draw26%
FC Urartu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Van
1.16
FC Urartu
1.46

FC Urartu creates 26% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 105 away

creates per match

Van
1.31
FC Urartu
1.49

allows per match

Van
1.43
FC Urartu
1.01

finishing

Van+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Van ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Van or draw
56%
Van or FC Urartu
74%
Draw or FC Urartu
70%

Winning margin

Van wins by 2+
12%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Van 1+ goals
69%
Van 2+ goals
32%
Van 3+ goals
11%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
77%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
43%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Van (draw refunded)
41%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Van at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 94 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Van attack 1.31 + FC Urartu defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

FC Urartu attack 1.49 + Van defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Van scores more
30%
level
26%
FC Urartu scores more
44%

FC Urartu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Urartu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Van
DLLW
Urartu
WLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Van host FC Urartu

March 11, 2027: Van take on FC Urartu in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Van host FC Urartu at Charentsavan City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.