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Valledupar vs Quindio — Primera B 2018

Valledupar
Valledupar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Quindio
Quindio
3/24/2019Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 9Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Valledupar41%
×Draw29%
Quindio30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valledupar
1.21
Quindio
0.99

Valledupar creates 22% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 153 away

creates per match

Valledupar
1.25
Quindio
0.96

allows per match

Valledupar
1.03
Quindio
1.18

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par
Quindio+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Quindio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw
70%
Valledupar or Quindio
71%
Draw or Quindio
59%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+
18%
Quindio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals
70%
Valledupar 2+ goals
34%
Valledupar 3+ goals
12%
Quindio 1+ goals
63%
Quindio 2+ goals
26%
Quindio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)
58%
Quindio (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 89 matches

Quindio away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.18 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 1.25 + Quindio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Quindio attack 0.96 + Valledupar defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Valledupar scores more
41%
level
29%
Quindio scores more
30%

Valledupar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Valledupar 0–1 Quindio

Quindio beat Valledupar 1-0 in Primera B on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar).