Valledupar 1–1 Leones FC: Result & Stats

Valledupar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leones FC

C. Cangá 90+2'

K. Aladesanmi 38' (pen)

7/20/2019

Primera B · Clausura - 1Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Valledupar44%

×Draw26%

Leones FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValleduparExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.16

Valledupar

1.47

Leones FC

1.16

Valledupar creates 27% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 127 away

1.25

creates per match

1.29

1.03

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Valledupar

1.25

Leones FC

1.29

allows per match

Valledupar

1.03

Leones FC

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw

70%

Valledupar or Leones FC

74%

Draw or Leones FC

56%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+

22%

Leones FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals

77%

Valledupar 2+ goals

43%

Valledupar 3+ goals

18%

Leones FC 1+ goals

69%

Leones FC 2+ goals

32%

Leones FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)

60%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 89 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 1.25 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Valledupar defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valledupar scores more

44%

level

26%

Leones FC scores more

30%

Valledupar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

K. AladesanmiPenalty

46'

Y. Mosquera← N. Murcia

50'

C. Serna← S. Tapiero

65'

F. Gil← L. Gómez

67'

D. Cajiao← W. Boyacá

79'

L. Vélez← W. Cruz

84'

J. Arrieta← S. Rodríguez

90+2'

C. Cangá

Valledupar

Leones

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: N. Bernal

46'▲Y. Mosquera←▼N. Murcia

67'▲D. Cajiao←▼W. Boyacá

84'▲J. Arrieta←▼S. Rodríguez

Valledupar substitutes

MosqueraCajiaoArrietaGutiérrezMontesMorenoGutiérrez

Manager: A. Hernández

50'▲C. Serna←▼S. Tapiero

65'▲F. Gil←▼L. Gómez

79'▲L. Vélez←▼W. Cruz

Leones FC substitutes

SernaGilVélezCeballosPalaciosSoto