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Valledupar vs Barranquilla — Primera B 2018

Valledupar
Valledupar
CANC
20:00
Barranquilla
Barranquilla
10/3/2020Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 12Estadio Erasmo Camacho Calamar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Valledupar49%
×Draw27%
Barranquilla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valledupar
1.43
Barranquilla
0.93

Valledupar creates 54% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 135 away

creates per match

Valledupar
1.25
Barranquilla
0.82

allows per match

Valledupar
1.03
Barranquilla
1.61

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par
Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Barranquilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw
75%
Valledupar or Barranquilla
73%
Draw or Barranquilla
51%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+
24%
Barranquilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals
76%
Valledupar 2+ goals
42%
Valledupar 3+ goals
17%
Barranquilla 1+ goals
61%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
24%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)
66%
Barranquilla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 89 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 1.25 + Barranquilla defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Barranquilla attack 0.82 + Valledupar defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valledupar scores more
49%
level
27%
Barranquilla scores more
25%

Valledupar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valledupar host Barranquilla

October 3, 2020: Valledupar take on Barranquilla in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valledupar host Barranquilla at Estadio Erasmo Camacho Calamar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.