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Valle Egüés vs Txantrea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Txantrea
Txantrea
9/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 1Estadio Sarriguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Valle Egüés49%
×Draw24%
Txantrea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valle Egüés
1.68
Txantrea
1.19

Valle Egüés creates 41% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 109 away

creates per match

Valle Egüés
1.76
Txantrea
1.28

allows per match

Valle Egüés
1.09
Txantrea
1.60

finishing

Valle Egüés+0.00on par
Txantrea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valle Egüés ↓

Txantrea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Valle Egüés or draw
73%
Valle Egüés or Txantrea
76%
Draw or Txantrea
51%

Winning margin

Valle Egüés wins by 2+
26%
Txantrea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Valle Egüés 1+ goals
81%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
50%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
24%
Txantrea 1+ goals
70%
Txantrea 2+ goals
33%
Txantrea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
64%
Txantrea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valle Egüés at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 91 matches

Txantrea away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valle Egüés attack 1.76 + Txantrea defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Txantrea attack 1.28 + Valle Egüés defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valle Egüés scores more
49%
level
24%
Txantrea scores more
27%

Valle Egüés at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Valle Egüés 1–0 Txantrea

Valle Egüés beat Txantrea 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriguren in Sarriguren.