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Valle Egüés vs Burladés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
CANC
00:00
Burladés
Burladés
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 31Estadio Sarriguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Valle Egüés50%
×Draw25%
Burladés25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valle Egüés
1.56
Burladés
1.02

Valle Egüés creates 53% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 90 away

creates per match

Valle Egüés
1.76
Burladés
0.94

allows per match

Valle Egüés
1.09
Burladés
1.37

finishing

Valle Egüés+0.00on par
Burladés+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valle Egüés ↓

Burladés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Valle Egüés or draw
75%
Valle Egüés or Burladés
75%
Draw or Burladés
50%

Winning margin

Valle Egüés wins by 2+
26%
Burladés wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Valle Egüés 1+ goals
79%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
46%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
21%
Burladés 1+ goals
64%
Burladés 2+ goals
27%
Burladés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
67%
Burladés (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valle Egüés at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 91 matches

Burladés away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valle Egüés attack 1.76 + Burladés defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Burladés attack 0.94 + Valle Egüés defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Valle Egüés scores more
50%
level
25%
Burladés scores more
25%

Valle Egüés at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valle Egüés face Burladés (Tercera División RFEF - Group 15)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 returns with Valle Egüés hosting Burladés. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Valle Egüés host Burladés at Estadio Sarriguren.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.