Valladolid 2–1 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valladolid

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Levante

Nacho Martínez 56'

E. Ünal 50'

Sergio Postigo 47'

9/27/2018

La Liga · Round 6José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Valladolid42%

×Draw26%

Levante32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.21

Valladolid

1.41

Levante

1.21

Valladolid creates 17% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 98 away

1.02

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Valladolid

1.02

Levante

1.15

allows per match

Valladolid

1.27

Levante

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

68%

Valladolid or Levante

74%

Draw or Levante

58%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

20%

Levante wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

76%

Valladolid 2+ goals

41%

Valladolid 3+ goals

17%

Levante 1+ goals

70%

Levante 2+ goals

34%

Levante 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

56%

Levante (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

Levante away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.02 + Levante defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.41

Levante attack 1.15 + Valladolid defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valladolid scores more

42%

level

26%

Levante scores more

32%

Valladolid at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Míchel

Valladolid · M

7.9

Match Events

22'

41'

47'

50'

54'

54'

56'

Nacho Martínez↳ Míchel

68'

E. Boateng← Roger Martí

70'

Antoñito← Óscar Plano

73'

Jason← Borja Mayoral

74'

Antoñito

75'

Borja Fernández← D. Čop

82'

L. Suárez← Javi Moyano

88'

M. Simon← Pedro López

90'

José Campaña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidLevante

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots9

8Corners6

17Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots9

6On Target4

9Off Target1

5Blocked4

8Inside Box8

12Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

481Total Passes255

419Accurate Passes186

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1