Valladolid 2–2 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valladolid

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Elche

Joaquín Fernández 89'

Míchel 71'

Josan Ferrández 43', 9'

1/19/2021

La Liga · Round 19Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Valladolid49%

×Draw25%

Elche26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.09

Valladolid

1.59

Elche

1.09

Valladolid creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.43

creates per match

0.71

1.47

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Valladolid

1.43

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Valladolid

1.47

Elche

1.75

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Valladolid-0.43scores less

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

74%

Valladolid or Elche

75%

Draw or Elche

51%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

25%

Elche wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

80%

Valladolid 2+ goals

47%

Valladolid 3+ goals

21%

Elche 1+ goals

66%

Elche 2+ goals

30%

Elche 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

65%

Elche (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.43 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Elche attack 0.71 + Valladolid defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valladolid scores more

49%

level

25%

Elche scores more

26%

Valladolid at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Josan Ferrández

Elche · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Roque Mesa

9'

Josan Ferrández↳ L. Boyé

39'

Fede San Emeterio

43'

Josan Ferrández↳ Gonzalo Verdú

51'

Josema

57'

Toni Villa← Kike Pérez

57'

Míchel← Fede

64'

Shon WeissmanGoal cancelled

71'

Míchel↳ F. Orellana

73'

Pablo Hervías← Luis Pérez

74'

Víctor Rodríguez← Jony Carmona

74'

Cifuentes← Josan Ferrández

74'

Diego González← Josema Sánchez

85'

Miguel Cifuentes

86'

John Donald← L. Boyé

89'

Sergio Benito← Óscar Plano

89'

Kuki← Roque Mesa

89'

Joaquín Fernández↳ Pablo Hervías

90'

Pere Milla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidElche

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots9

4Corners5

14Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots9

2On Target3

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

4Inside Box3

9Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

494Total Passes303

424Accurate Passes239

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1