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Vålerenga W vs Haugesund W — Toppserien 2021

Vålerenga W
Vålerenga W
Preview
11:00
Haugesund W
Haugesund W
9/19/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 16Intility Arena
69%
Vålerenga W
model favours
69%17%14%

Vålerenga W score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vålerenga W69%
×Draw17%
Haugesund W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vålerenga W
2.54
Haugesund W
1.06

Vålerenga W creates 140% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vålerenga W
2.90
Haugesund W
1.33

allows per match

Vålerenga W
0.80
Haugesund W
2.17

finishing

Vålerenga W+0.00on par
Haugesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga W ↓

Haugesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vålerenga W or draw
86%
Vålerenga W or Haugesund W
83%
Draw or Haugesund W
31%

Winning margin

Vålerenga W wins by 2+
47%
Haugesund W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vålerenga W 1+ goals
92%
Vålerenga W 2+ goals
72%
Vålerenga W 3+ goals
46%
Haugesund W 1+ goals
65%
Haugesund W 2+ goals
29%
Haugesund W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)
83%
Haugesund W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

Haugesund W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga W attack 2.90 + Haugesund W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.54

Haugesund W attack 1.33 + Vålerenga W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vålerenga W scores more
69%
level
17%
Haugesund W scores more
14%

Vålerenga W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vålerenga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 90% of Vålerenga W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Vålerenga W’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLLWL
W
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vålerenga W vs Haugesund W — Match Preview

Vålerenga W face Haugesund W on September 19, 2026 in this Toppserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vålerenga W host Haugesund W at Intility Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.