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Vålerenga W vs Hønefoss W — Toppserien 2021

Vålerenga W
Vålerenga W
Preview
16:00
Hønefoss W
Hønefoss W
8/19/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 13Intility Arena
79%
Vålerenga W
model favours
79%14%7%

Vålerenga W score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vålerenga W79%
×Draw14%
Hønefoss W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vålerenga W
2.66
Hønefoss W
0.69

Vålerenga W creates 286% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vålerenga W
2.90
Hønefoss W
0.58

allows per match

Vålerenga W
0.80
Hønefoss W
2.42

finishing

Vålerenga W+0.00on par
Hønefoss W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga W ↓

Hønefoss W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vålerenga W or draw
93%
Vålerenga W or Hønefoss W
86%
Draw or Hønefoss W
21%

Winning margin

Vålerenga W wins by 2+
57%
Hønefoss W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vålerenga W 1+ goals
93%
Vålerenga W 2+ goals
74%
Vålerenga W 3+ goals
49%
Hønefoss W 1+ goals
50%
Hønefoss W 2+ goals
15%
Hønefoss W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)
91%
Hønefoss W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

Hønefoss W away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga W attack 2.90 + Hønefoss W defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.66

Hønefoss W attack 0.58 + Vålerenga W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Vålerenga W scores more
79%
level
14%
Hønefoss W scores more
7%

Vålerenga W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Vålerenga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 90% of Vålerenga W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Vålerenga W have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • 70% of Hønefoss W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Vålerenga W’s matches
  • Hønefoss W win just 13% against the top half (vs 42% against the bottom)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLLWL
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vålerenga W vs Hønefoss W — Match Preview

Vålerenga W face Hønefoss W on August 19, 2026 in this Toppserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vålerenga W host Hønefoss W at Intility Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.