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Valerenga vs Fredrikstad — Eliteserien 2026

Valerenga
Valerenga
Preview
12:30
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
9/20/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 22Intility Arena
Big match
43%
Valerenga
model favours
43%24%33%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Valerenga43%
×Draw24%
Fredrikstad33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valerenga
1.61
Fredrikstad
1.39

Valerenga creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 34 away

creates per match

Valerenga
1.56
Fredrikstad
1.11

allows per match

Valerenga
1.67
Fredrikstad
1.66

finishing

Valerenga+0.39scores more
Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Fredrikstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw
67%
Valerenga or Fredrikstad
76%
Draw or Fredrikstad
57%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+
22%
Fredrikstad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals
80%
Valerenga 2+ goals
48%
Valerenga 3+ goals
22%
Fredrikstad 1+ goals
75%
Fredrikstad 2+ goals
40%
Fredrikstad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)
56%
Fredrikstad (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.67 · 22 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.56 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Valerenga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valerenga scores more
43%
level
24%
Fredrikstad scores more
33%

Valerenga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Valerenga score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Valerenga’s matches
  • 71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 69% of Valerenga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Valerenga
Balanced
Fredrikstad
Balanced
49%Possession45%
80%Pass accuracy75%
13.2ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.36xG1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ValerengaFredrikstad

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Valerenga
2
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%
3–11–11–21–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valerenga
WLWLD
Fredrikstad
LLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valerenga face Fredrikstad (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Valerenga hosting Fredrikstad. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Valerenga host Fredrikstad at Intility Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.