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Valencia W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Valencia W
Valencia W
Preview
16:00
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
1/17/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 16Estadio Antonio Puchades
Big match
55%
Real Madrid W
model favours
23%22%55%

Real Madrid W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Valencia W23%
×Draw22%
Real Madrid W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia W
1.17
Real Madrid W
1.93

Real Madrid W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 92 away

creates per match

Valencia W
1.41
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Valencia W
1.57
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Valencia W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Valencia W or draw
45%
Valencia W or Real Madrid W
78%
Draw or Real Madrid W
77%

Winning margin

Valencia W wins by 2+
9%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Valencia W 1+ goals
69%
Valencia W 2+ goals
33%
Valencia W 3+ goals
11%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
85%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
57%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Valencia W (draw refunded)
29%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia W attack 1.41 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Valencia W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Valencia W scores more
23%
level
22%
Real Madrid W scores more
55%

Real Madrid W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Valencia W win just 13% against the top half (vs 40% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Valencia W
Balanced
Real Madrid W
Possession-dominant
46%Possession59%
71%Pass accuracy83%
9.9ShotsBiggest gap17.5
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Valencia WReal Madrid W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Valencia W
3
Draws
7
Real Madrid W
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 60%
2–20–11–70–21–6

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDWWL
W
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valencia W host Real Madrid W

January 17, 2027: Valencia W take on Real Madrid W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valencia W host Real Madrid W at Estadio Antonio Puchades.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.