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Valencia W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Valencia W
Valencia W
CANC
22:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
5/9/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 29Estadio Antonio Puchades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Valencia W44%
×Draw23%
Madrid CFF W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia W
1.77
Madrid CFF W
1.50

Valencia W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 119 away

creates per match

Valencia W
1.41
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Valencia W
1.57
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Valencia W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Valencia W or draw
67%
Valencia W or Madrid CFF W
77%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
56%

Winning margin

Valencia W wins by 2+
23%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Valencia W 1+ goals
83%
Valencia W 2+ goals
53%
Valencia W 3+ goals
26%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
78%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
44%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Valencia W (draw refunded)
57%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia W attack 1.41 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Valencia W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valencia W scores more
44%
level
23%
Madrid CFF W scores more
33%

Valencia W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valencia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valencia W host Madrid CFF W

May 9, 2020: Valencia W take on Madrid CFF W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valencia W host Madrid CFF W at Estadio Antonio Puchades.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.