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Valencia W vs FC Levante Badalona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Valencia W
Valencia W
Preview
15:00
FC Levante Badalona W
FC Levante Badalona W
4/4/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 25Estadio Antonio Puchades
Big match
47%
Valencia W
model favours
47%24%28%
1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Valencia W47%
×Draw24%
FC Levante Badalona W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia W
1.67
FC Levante Badalona W
1.24

Valencia W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 60 away

creates per match

Valencia W
1.39
FC Levante Badalona W
0.88

allows per match

Valencia W
1.59
FC Levante Badalona W
1.95

finishing

Valencia W+0.00on par
FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Valencia W or draw
72%
Valencia W or FC Levante Badalona W
76%
Draw or FC Levante Badalona W
53%

Winning margin

Valencia W wins by 2+
25%
FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Valencia W 1+ goals
81%
Valencia W 2+ goals
50%
Valencia W 3+ goals
23%
FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals
71%
FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals
35%
FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Valencia W (draw refunded)
62%
FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.59 · 102 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia W attack 1.39 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Valencia W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valencia W scores more
47%
level
24%
FC Levante Badalona W scores more
28%

Valencia W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Valencia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DDWWL
W
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valencia W host FC Levante Badalona W

April 4, 2027: Valencia W take on FC Levante Badalona W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valencia W host FC Levante Badalona W at Estadio Antonio Puchades.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.