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Valencia W vs Eibar W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Valencia W
Valencia W
Preview
16:00
Eibar W
Eibar W
11/1/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 9Estadio Antonio Puchades
Big match
47%
Valencia W
model favours
47%25%28%
1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Valencia W47%
×Draw25%
Eibar W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia W
1.59
Eibar W
1.18

Valencia W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 77 away

creates per match

Valencia W
1.41
Eibar W
0.78

allows per match

Valencia W
1.57
Eibar W
1.77

finishing

Valencia W+0.00on par
Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia W ↓

Eibar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Valencia W or draw
72%
Valencia W or Eibar W
75%
Draw or Eibar W
53%

Winning margin

Valencia W wins by 2+
24%
Eibar W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Valencia W 1+ goals
80%
Valencia W 2+ goals
47%
Valencia W 3+ goals
21%
Eibar W 1+ goals
69%
Eibar W 2+ goals
33%
Eibar W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Valencia W (draw refunded)
62%
Eibar W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia W attack 1.41 + Eibar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Eibar W attack 0.78 + Valencia W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valencia W scores more
47%
level
25%
Eibar W scores more
28%

Valencia W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Valencia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Valencia W
Direct / counter-attacking
Eibar W
Direct / counter-attacking
45%Possession32%
73%Pass accuracy53%
10.1ShotsBiggest gap6.9
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Valencia WEibar W

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

4
Valencia W
0
Draws
4
Eibar W
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 25%
2–00–20–20–11–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DDWWL
W
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valencia W face Eibar W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Valencia W hosting Eibar W. Match starts November 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Valencia W host Eibar W at Estadio Antonio Puchades.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.