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Valencia W vs Deportivo Alavés W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Valencia W
Valencia W
Preview
16:00
Deportivo Alavés W
Deportivo Alavés W
2/7/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 19Estadio Antonio Puchades
57%
Valencia W
model favours
57%21%22%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Valencia W57%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Alavés W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia W
2.14
Deportivo Alavés W
1.25

Valencia W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 30 away

creates per match

Valencia W
1.41
Deportivo Alavés W
0.93

allows per match

Valencia W
1.57
Deportivo Alavés W
2.87

finishing

Valencia W+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia W ↓

Deportivo Alavés W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Valencia W or draw
78%
Valencia W or Deportivo Alavés W
79%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés W
43%

Winning margin

Valencia W wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo Alavés W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Valencia W 1+ goals
88%
Valencia W 2+ goals
63%
Valencia W 3+ goals
36%
Deportivo Alavés W 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Alavés W 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Alavés W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Valencia W (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Alavés W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

Deportivo Alavés W away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia W attack 1.41 + Deportivo Alavés W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.14

Deportivo Alavés W attack 0.93 + Valencia W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Valencia W scores more
57%
level
21%
Deportivo Alavés W scores more
22%

Valencia W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Valencia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DDWWL
W
DDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valencia W host Deportivo Alavés W

February 7, 2027: Valencia W take on Deportivo Alavés W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valencia W host Deportivo Alavés W at Estadio Antonio Puchades.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.