Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valencia vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Valencia
Valencia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Levante
Levante
6/12/2020La LigaLa Liga · Round 28Estadio de Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Valencia49%
×Draw25%
Levante26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valencia
1.57
Levante
1.07

Valencia creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Valencia
1.44
Levante
1.18

allows per match

Valencia
0.96
Levante
1.71

finishing

Valencia-0.08on par
Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Valencia or draw
74%
Valencia or Levante
75%
Draw or Levante
51%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+
25%
Levante wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals
79%
Valencia 2+ goals
46%
Valencia 3+ goals
21%
Levante 1+ goals
66%
Levante 2+ goals
29%
Levante 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)
65%
Levante (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 1.44 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Levante attack 1.18 + Valencia defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valencia scores more
49%
level
25%
Levante scores more
26%

Valencia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Liga: Valencia 1–1 Levante

Valencia and Levante drew 1-1 in La Liga on June 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia.