Valencia 2–1 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Valencia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Elche

C. Piccini 86'

Gonçalo Guedes 23'

L. Boyé 75'

12/11/2021

La Liga · Round 17Estadio de Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Valencia53%

×Draw25%

Elche21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciaExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.89

Valencia

1.57

Elche

0.89

Valencia creates 76% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 27 away

1.39

creates per match

0.71

1.06

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Valencia

1.39

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Valencia

1.06

Elche

1.75

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Valencia-0.15scores less

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valencia ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Valencia or draw

79%

Valencia or Elche

75%

Draw or Elche

47%

Winning margin

Valencia wins by 2+

28%

Elche wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Valencia 1+ goals

79%

Valencia 2+ goals

46%

Valencia 3+ goals

21%

Elche 1+ goals

59%

Elche 2+ goals

22%

Elche 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Valencia (draw refunded)

71%

Elche (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valencia at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 41 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valencia attack 1.39 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Elche attack 0.71 + Valencia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Valencia scores more

53%

level

25%

Elche scores more

21%

Valencia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Carlos Soler

Valencia · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

C. Piccini← Toni Lato

23'

Gonçalo Guedes↳ J. Cillessen

34'

Maximiliano Gómez

41'

Jose Morente

46'

Pere Milla← Tete Morente

48'

Daniel Wass

61'

D. Benedetto← Fidel

61'

Gumbau← I. Marcone

73'

Josan Ferrández← Barragán

75'

L. Boyé↳ Lucas Pérez

82'

Marcos André← Gonçalo Guedes

82'

K. Koindredi← D. Wass

82'

D. Cheryshev← Hélder Costa

86'

C. Piccini↳ M. Diakhaby

88'

G. Carrillo← Omar Mascarell

90+2'

Dimitri Foulquier

90+2'

Enzo Roco

90'

Y. Musah← Hugo Duro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciaElche

Overview

41%Possession59%

21Total Shots8

8Corners1

15Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots8

8On Target4

8Off Target2

5Blocked2

15Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

269Total Passes415

194Accurate Passes324

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Valencia vs Elche

Valencia beat Elche 2-1 in La Liga on December 11, 2021.

Goals: Gonçalo Guedes (23'), L. Boyé (75'), C. Piccini (86').

Elche controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 21.

The match was played at Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia.

Valencia vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Valencia vs Elche