Vado 0–0 Città di Varese: Result & Stats

Vado

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Città di Varese

12/12/2021

League #426 · Group A - 16Stadio Ferruccio Chittolina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vado58%

×Draw25%

Città di Varese17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VadoExpected goals in this matchCittà di Varese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.75

Vado

1.63

Città di Varese

0.75

Vado creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vado

1.25

Città di Varese

1.00

allows per match

Vado

0.50

Città di Varese

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vado+0.00on par

Città di Varese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vado ↓

Città di Varese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vado or draw

83%

Vado or Città di Varese

75%

Draw or Città di Varese

42%

Winning margin

Vado wins by 2+

32%

Città di Varese wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vado 1+ goals

80%

Vado 2+ goals

48%

Vado 3+ goals

22%

Città di Varese 1+ goals

53%

Città di Varese 2+ goals

17%

Città di Varese 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vado (draw refunded)

77%

Città di Varese (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vado at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Città di Varese away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vado attack 1.25 + Città di Varese defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Città di Varese attack 1.00 + Vado defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vado scores more

58%

level

25%

Città di Varese scores more

17%

Vado at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff