V-varen Nagasaki vs Ventforet Kofu — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 144+ matches
V-varen Nagasaki41%
Ventforet Kofu32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
V-varen Nagasaki creates 16% more chances
Season form · 144 home / 166 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
V-varen Nagasaki ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches
Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40
Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Matsumoto Yamaga
Oita Trinita
Yokohama FC
Machida Zelvia
Omiya Ardija
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Renofa YamaguchiVentforet Kofu
Mito Hollyhock
Tokushima Vortis
Montedio Yamagata
Kanazawa
JEF United Chiba
Fagiano Okayama
Albirex Niigata
Tochigi SC
Ehime FC
Kyoto Sanga
FC Gifu
Roasso Kumamoto
Kamatamare SanukiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
V-varen Nagasaki host Ventforet Kofu on Saturday, 5 March 2022 at 05:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
J2 League: V-varen Nagasaki 1–2 Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 in J2 League on March 5, 2022.
Goals: K. Tokura (10'), M. Hasegawa (42'), R. Iijima (68').
The match was played at Transcosmos Stadium in Isahaya.