V-varen Nagasaki 4–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Thespakusatsu Gunma

H. Kato 89'

A. Uenaka 59', 38'

T. Sawada 51'

S. Maikuma 50' (OG)

11/3/2021

J2 League · Round 37Transcosmos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki51%

×Draw25%

Thespakusatsu Gunma24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchThespakusatsu Gunma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.02

V-varen Nagasaki

1.59

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.02

V-varen Nagasaki creates 56% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 104 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

1.10

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.65

Thespakusatsu Gunma

0.95

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.10

Thespakusatsu Gunma

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

76%

V-varen Nagasaki or Thespakusatsu Gunma

75%

Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma

49%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

26%

Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

80%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

47%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

21%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals

64%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals

27%

Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

68%

Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.10 · 144 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.95 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

51%

level

25%

Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more

24%

V-varen Nagasaki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

A. Uenaka

50'

S. MaikumaOwn goal

51'

T. Sawada

59'

S. Aoki← S. Kitagawa

59'

H. Hosogai← Y. Nakayama

59'

A. Uenaka

70'

T. Nagura← T. Sawada

70'

R. Yamazaki← Wellington Rato

77'

H. Kato← S. Yoneda

77'

K. Tokura← A. Uenaka

79'

T. Tanaka← G. Omae

79'

Y. Mitsunaga← M. Kojima

80'

K. Watanabe← H. Hatao

87'

T. Abe← M. Kato

89'

H. Kato

V-varen

Thespakusatsu

21

Matsubara

40

Obu

3

▼

Hatao

25

▼

Kojima

6

Uchida

41

▼

Nakayama

16

Kubota

15

Kinjo

50

▼

Omae

9

▼

18

1

26

23

▼

Yoneda

24

Egawa

16

🥅

Maikuma

13

▼

Kato

28

▼

Rato

6

César

19

⚽

▼

Sawada

22

Kuwasaki

33

⚽2

▼

Uenaka

Manager: H. Matsuda

70'▲T. Nagura←▼T. Sawada

70'▲R. Yamazaki←▼Wellington Rato

77'▲H. Kato←▼S. Yoneda

77'▲K. Tokura←▼A. Uenaka

87'▲T. Abe←▼M. Kato

V-varen Nagasaki substitutes

14Nagura18Yamazaki15Kato27Tokura35Abe21Takagiwa25Shinzato

Manager: K. Kudo

59'▲S. Aoki←▼S. Kitagawa

59'▲H. Hosogai←▼Y. Nakayama

79'▲T. Tanaka←▼G. Omae

79'▲Y. Mitsunaga←▼M. Kojima

80'▲K. Watanabe←▼H. Hatao

Thespakusatsu Gunma substitutes

10Aoki33Hosogai11Tanaka24Mitsunaga32Watanabe1Shimizu19Shiraishi