V-varen Nagasaki 2–1 Kanazawa: Result & Stats

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kanazawa

2/27/2021

J2 League · Round 1Transcosmos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki47%

×Draw25%

Kanazawa29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchKanazawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.19

V-varen Nagasaki

1.59

Kanazawa

1.19

V-varen Nagasaki creates 34% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 126 away

1.65

creates per match

1.25

1.13

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.65

Kanazawa

1.25

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.13

Kanazawa

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Kanazawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

71%

V-varen Nagasaki or Kanazawa

75%

Draw or Kanazawa

53%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

24%

Kanazawa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

80%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

47%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

21%

Kanazawa 1+ goals

70%

Kanazawa 2+ goals

33%

Kanazawa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

62%

Kanazawa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

47%

level

25%

Kanazawa scores more

29%

V-varen Nagasaki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff